Are Democrats or Republicans or Libertarians Better Investors?

by Fred Fuld III

Last year, I posted an article about the political ETFs, which track the investments of politicians based on the reporting of their transactions, which politicians are legally required to provide.

I mentioned in that article that year-to-date, Democrats were far outperforming the Republicans.

At the end of the year, I posted a followup article which showed that Democrats were still outperforming.

Let’s take a look at how these stocks are doing this year.

DJT

First of all, there is the Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which is a media and technology company founded by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2021. DJT was established with the goal of creating an alternative to mainstream media and tech platforms, which Trump and his supporters claim limit conservative voices. The company’s flagship project is Truth Social, a social media platform that aims to provide a space for free speech and minimal content moderation.

In addition to Truth Social, DJT has announced plans for other ventures, such as a subscription-based video-on-demand service called TMTG+, which would feature a mix of entertainment, news, and documentary content catering to a conservative audience. The company has faced both praise and controversy, navigating legal and regulatory challenges while securing funding and building partnerships to expand its media footprint. The company aims to position itself as a significant player in the conservative media landscape and a counterbalance to established tech giants.

In regards to the return on the stock, it is up over 201% so far this year, as of the time this article is being written. The company’s a market cap of $10 billion, is debt free, and is currently generating negative earnings.

Congressional Investors

The Democrats, based on the return of the Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NANC), is up over 25.8% so far this year. The ETF invests in companies that sitting Democratic members of United States Congress and/or their families also have reported to have invested in. The expense ratio is 0.75%.

As for the Republicans, Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ), trailing far behind, up only 14.85%. It invests in stocks that sitting Republican members of United States Congress and/or their families also have reported to have invested in. The expense ratio is 0.75%.

Political Contributions

There is also the Political Contribution Comparison, which shows the returns of companies that make political contributions to Democratic versus Republican candidates and political action committees.

This analysis shows the following returns.

The Democratic Large Cap Core ETF (DEMZ) invests in large cap companies that make political contributions to Democratic Party candidates and political action committees above a certain threshold. Total return so far for the year is 22.1%.

The Point Bridge America First ETF (MAGA) has a goal of investing in companies  that are highly supportive of Republican candidates. The return so for is just 16.8%.

Semi-Political EFTs

Also, there are the semi-political ETFs. These ETFs are somewhat different in that they leave the politicians out of the analysis, both as investors and political donees. These ETFs have very different returns.

The God Bless America ETF (YALL) is an ETF that screens out companies that support liberal political activism and social agendas. It was up an incredible 36.7% for the year. 

The American Conservative Values ETF (ACVF) invests in stocks that meet its politically conservative criteria. The annual return was a positive 23.1%.

One ETF that is considered by many to be a “liberal” ETF is the SPDR MSCI ACWI Climate Paris Aligned ETF (NZAC). It is for “investors seeking to implement net-zero strategies and address climate change in a holistic way”. The ETF is up 17.8% year-to-date.

Libertarians

A Libertarian play is the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) due to the fact that Argentina now has a libertarian president. This fund is up about 45% this year, far outpacing the S&P 500, which is up 22.4%. ARGT has a market cap of $394 million, a price to earnings ratio of 20.45, and even pays a dividend with a yield of 1.12%. The expense ratio is 0.59%.

Finally, there is the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) which seeks to invest in countries with higher personal and economic freedom scores. The ETF is up 8.32% this year.

Most of the above have extremely low market caps of less than $200 million, and wide bid and asked spreads, with limited liquidity.

The next couple weeks should be interesting, not just for politics and the election, but for the political ETFs. So now, not only do you have many choices of presidential candidates, you also have many political ETF choices.

Disclosure: Author owns ARGT.

The Libertarian ETFs

by Fred Fuld III

A few days ago, I published an article titled Democrat Politician Investors Still Outperforming Republican Politician Investors, which discussed the investment returns of Democratic politicians versus Republicans.

The post also included a few other conservative and liberal ETFs.

One of my readers posted a message asking about the returns for Libertarian oriented stocks.

If you have ever watched the TV show Last Man Standing, the character that Tim Allen plays, Mike Baxter, says “drugs and guns. I’m definitely a libertarian.”

So are there any libertarian ETFs?

Up until recently, there was a B.A.D. ETF (BAD), but unfortunately the fund liquidated a couple months ago. The B.A.D. stood for betting, alcohol, and drugs, which covers some of the areas that libertarians believe in.

Last year, while it was operating, the BAD ETF was up only 4.3% versus the S&P 500 which was up over 22%.

It is somewhat similar to the AdvisorShares Vice ETF (VICE), but VICE doesn’t even include drugs, and about broke even last year.

An alternative play is the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) due to the fact that Argentina now has a libertarian president. This fund was up 46.8% for last year, far outpacing the S&P 500.

Finally, there is the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) which seeks to invest in countries with higher personal and economic freedom scores. The ETF was up 15.7% last year.

Also, if you are just looking for drugs, you have a lot of ETF varieties to choose from (in no particular order):

AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (PSIL)
Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED)
Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE)
Amplify Growth Opportunities ETF (CNBS)
AXS Cannabis ETF (THCX)
AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO)
Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX)
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS)
ETFMG U.S. Alternative Harvest ETF (MJUS)
Advisorshares Msos 2x Daily ETF (MSOX)

Maybe some of these suggestions can free up some profits for your portfolio.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

Argentina Has a Libertarian President-Elect: How to Invest in Argentina

By Fred Fuld III

In case you haven’t heard the news, the president-elect for the nation of Argentina is Javier Milei, the first libertarian leader of a major country. He primarily identifies as a minarchist, libertarian, or classical liberal, and advocates for a minimalistic government focused solely on justice and security, with a strong opposition to socialism and communism, criticizing them as violent systems that generate misery and hunger.

Considering that the rate of inflation in Argentina this year surpassed 100% for the first time since the early 1990s, it’s no wonder that the people of Argentina are fed up with past politicians and want someone who is dramatically different and will make substantial changes to the government, and in turn, the country’s economy.

When the news hit, the Argentina ETF, which is the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT), spiked by 11.56% today and is even higher in the after-market. It is a diversified way of investing in the Argentina market. 

However, there are several Argentina companies that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ which are available to traders and investors. 

One of the largest is the financial services company Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL), which trades on NASDAQ and has a market cap of $1.75 billion. 

Grupo Financiero is a leading financial institution in Mexico, with a wide range of financial products and services for individuals and businesses. The company provides banking, insurance, investment management, and other financial services to its customers. Grupo Financiero has a strong focus on innovation and technology. The company has a strong track record of financial performance, and is well-positioned for continued growth in the future.

The stock trades at 15 times trailing earnings and 9 times forward earnings. It has an outstanding price-to-sales ratio of 0.16 and is selling for half of book value. Quarterly earnings growth year over year was 78.8% and earnings for next year are expected to jump by 232%. The company even pays a 5.12% dividend.

Another stock worth looking at is Banco Macro (BMA), with a market cap of $1,53 billion. It trades on the NYSE. 

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading private national bank in Argentina, providing a comprehensive range of financial products and services to individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, and corporations. The bank operates an extensive branch network across the country, complemented by a robust digital banking platform. 

The trailing price earnings ratio is 31 and the forward P/E is 8. Although earnings for the latest quarter were up substantially over the same quarter for the previous year, earnings for next year are expected to be up only minimally, roughly 0.5%.

The company’s ratios are all excellent with a Price to Earnings Growth of 0.15, a P/S ratio of 0.22, and a P/B ratio of 0.53. (Remember, any number below one for these ratios is considered favorable.)

The company pays a fairly high dividend of 8.04%.

Pampa Energia (PAM) is the large utility company in Argentina, with a market cap of $5.6 billion, and trades on the NYSE. 

Pampa Energía S.A. is the leading independent and integrated energy company in Argentina, with a diversified portfolio of assets across the electricity and gas value chains. The company operates an installed electricity generation capacity of 4,970 MW, with a focus on thermal and renewable energy sources.

Pampa Energía also produces oil and gas, with an average production of 80,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) as of Q3 23. The company’s transmission business, Transener, operates and maintains 86% of the Argentine high voltage transmission grid. Pampa Energía has a strong commitment to sustainability and is actively investing in renewable energy projects. 

The trailing P/E ratio is 6 and the forward P/E is 8. Earnings growth this year was negative, and expected todrop again next year. The PEG ratio is good at 0.86, but the P/S ratio is moderated at 1.32.

Surprisingly for a utility, but maybe not so surprising based on the financials, the company does not pay a dividend.

The energy company YPF (YPF) has a market cap of $13 billion and trades on the NYSE. 

YPF S.A. is a leading integrated energy company in Argentina, engaging in the exploration, production, and distribution of crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It operates through three segments: Upstream, Gas and Energy, and Downstream. The company’s upstream business focuses on the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons from conventional and unconventional sources.

The Gas and Energy segment manages the transportation, commercialization, and distribution of natural gas, as well as the operation of regasification terminals and the generation of electricity. The Downstream segment encompasses the refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and petroleum products, along with the production of petrochemicals, biofuels, and other related components.

YPF maintains a retail network of over 1,600 YPF-branded service stations and holds exploration permits across Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Bolivia. With a commitment to innovation and sustainability

The stock trades at eight times trailing earnings and five times forward earnings. Earnings per share tanked this year dropping 47%, and next year are expected to drop another 2.6%. 

Yet the P/S ratio is 0.32 and the stock is selling at 54% of book value.

The company does not pay a dividend.

I’m sure the world will be watching to see what happens with Argentina in the next few years, especially their inflation rate.

Author didn’t own any of the above t the time the article was written.